Energy module · Live · Data current as of May 2026

Reasoning, when markets break.

A propagation engine for the global energy and supply-chain system. 1,200 assets across 86 countries and 19 commodity classes. Click any one — the engine traces the cascade. Backtested against 71 historical events with 96% accuracy within ±1 tier.

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The gap

Energy markets move at the speed of geopolitics.

News Headlines tell you what just happened.
Dashboards Track what's already happening.
Neither Tells you what happens next.
The instrument

Map. Model. Simulate.

Three layers, separable by design. Engine reasons procedurally. Logic encodes decisions. Data points are declared with confidence tiers. You can interrogate any assertion at any depth.

01

Map

1,200 assets — refineries, terminals, pipelines, offshore and onshore projects, power plants, mines, ports, chokepoints — across 19 commodity classes. Geographic and topological at once.

1,200 assets · 86 countries · 19 classes
02

Model

Dependency graphs with declared confidence. Every assertion is verified, evidenced, reasoned, or estimated — visible at the point of use. The platform is honest about what it does and doesn't know.

Four-tier confidence · auditable
03

Simulate

Arm any asset. The engine propagates the disruption through the graph and returns one of six equilibrium archetypes. Calibrated against 71 historical events from 1999–2025.

Six archetypes · 96% backtest accuracy
The full methodology — including the per-event audit table, damper definitions, amplifier weights, and the held-out backtest record — is published in detail.
Start here

Four scenarios. One click each.

The fastest way to see what the engine does is to watch it cascade through a canonical disruption. Pick one to launch the Atlas pre-armed.

Coverage

Energy, metals, agriculture, logistics. Already live.

The platform reasons across 19 commodity classes — not just oil and gas, but the full supply-chain web that ties them to fertilizer, freight, industrial metals, and food.

● Live
Energy
Refineries · terminals · pipelines · projects · power
● Live
Metals & mining
Iron, copper, nickel, lithium, rare earths
● Live
Agriculture & food
Grain · palm oil · sugar · fertilizer
● Live
Logistics
Container ports · air freight · chokepoints
Calibration

Backtested. Not back-fitted.

The engine is exercised against five decades of real disruption events. Where the model agrees with history, that's signal. Where it doesn't, the delta is published.

1,200
Critical assets mapped
86
Countries covered
71
Historical events in calibration set
96
% backtest accuracy within ±1 tier
The position

We don't sell forecasts.
We build reasoning instruments.

Strata-intel is for the analyst, the trader, the policy desk, and the risk committee that needs to see the cascade — not just the headline.

[email protected]
For Strategy offices, sovereign wealth, policy desks, energy operators — anyone who needs structured answers to "what if X breaks", not dashboards.
What it's not Not a price prediction engine, not a news terminal, not a consultant deck. The engine reasons about physical supply chains; pricing is downstream.
Reach out [email protected] — questions, corrections, custom reports.
Strata-intel v198.9
Strata-intel · v198.9

Disruption, mapped.

A propagation engine for the global energy and supply-chain system. 1,200 assets across 86 countries and 19 commodity classes. Click any one and the engine traces the cascade — who gets hit, by how much, on what horizon. Calibrated against 71 historical events; 96% backtest accuracy within ±1 tier.

For
Strategy offices, sovereign wealth, policy desks, energy operators — anyone who needs structured answers to “what if X breaks”, not dashboards.
What it’s not
Not a price prediction engine, not a news terminal, not a consultant deck. The engine reasons about physical supply chains; pricing is downstream.
Reach out
[email protected] — questions, corrections, custom reports.
Strata-intel v198.9
Strata-intel
02 · COUNTRY SCORING

Energy Independence Atlas

73 countries scored on net energy position, import dependency, and chokepoint exposure. Click any country for full profile breakdown.
Sort by
Tier
#
Country
Region
Score
Independence (0–100)
Tier
Inspector
How the engine reasonsread-only
The platform's reasoning is grounded in three separable layers: engine (procedural code · how the system reasons), logic (model decisions · taxonomies, parameters, lens definitions), and data points (entity declarations · what facts the system knows). This view inspects the logic layer.
Fragility analysis
Probability of equilibrium breachPhase 3
Monte Carlo simulation across the parameter distributions declared in MODEL_CONFIG.fragility_params. Each archetype carries its own distribution shape (μ, σ) from observed historical disruption magnitudes. Output is the probability that the new equilibrium clears within tolerance — and what regime it lands in.
Calibration
Engine vs. realityPhase 4
The engine's reasoning is honest only if it can be checked. This view replays curated historical disruption events through the engine and scores predictions against actual observed outcomes. Each backtest yields a quantitative match score plus actionable calibration insights — over-predictions, under-predictions, and gaps where the engine missed reality.
Per-asset score
Asset Stress Index
A 0–100 score measuring expected damage to the global commodity system if an asset were fully disrupted for 30 days. Composed of throughput share, substitutability (inverted), dependent-country concentration (Herfindahl), and cross-commodity coupling. Calibrated against historical events.
Reports

Generate a report

Select one or more report types. Each is a PDF generated on demand from the engine. Pick a subject in each panel and click Generate.

Chokepoint
For any major transit chokepoint: who depends on it, what flows through, what happens if closed for 30 days, bypass options, multi-commodity cascade analysis, and historical incidents.
Country
Energy and commodity supply-chain vulnerability assessment for any of ~86 countries with curated dependency portfolios.
Commodity
For any commodity class: top producers, top importer countries, transit-chokepoint exposure, and substitution-ceiling statistics. Surfaces structural concentration.
Operator
For any major operator: full asset portfolio, geographic concentration, and worst-case single-asset failure scenarios. Surfaces single-point-of-failure exposure.
Run a disruption scenario
Click any asset → arm → see global cascade
Layers
Click any entity for details. For country-level analysis, see Country Scoring tab.
Pick layers to choose which assets to disrupt. Click any visible asset → ⊕ Arm scenario. Multi-select supported for compound disruption.
Energy Independence
85+ Major exporter
70-84 Self-sufficient
50-69 Partially dependent
30-49 Highly dependent
<30 Critically dependent
Larger circle = higher score
Pipelines
Oil
Gas
Refined products
HVDC
Dashed = planned/idled
Terminals + STS
LNG export (square)
LNG regas (faded circle)
Crude export (circle)
Product / bunker (diamond)
STS zone (dashed circle)
Sample: ~60 entities. Live atlas backend will populate to 150+ globally. Includes shadow-fleet STS hubs (Laconia, Lome, Vostochny) with sanctions context.
▾ Scenario Builder
Click any asset → ⊕ Arm scenario → set severity + duration → run. Multi-select supported.
Armed for compound
Substitution flow
Unmet demand
Every typed entity is armable. Curated entities use evidenced paths; others use defaults.
▾ SCENARIO BUILDER
Build any disruption you want to reason about
The platform's reasoning engine works on any asset you arm. Click an asset on the map, set severity and duration sliders, run. Multi-select supported — armed entities run as a compound scenario with congestion-aware substitution allocation and predicted price impact.
or browse pre-built examples
Or try a showcase scenario
Each runs the live engine. Reasoning track explains why every tier is what it is.
Picks two showcases and produces a side-by-side comparison PDF. Same engine, same gates, same reasoning — just two outputs diffed.
click any asset to arm
two sliders per entity
multi-select for compound
share via URL
Global Capex Timeline · 2026